每日跟讀#590: Can Taiwan benefit from the US-China trade war?

As the US-China trade negotiations enter their final stage, the noises are that China has already given ground on issues including enforced technology transfers, protecting intellectual property and relaxing restrictions on access to China’s market. It is rumored that an agreement could be reached as soon as next month. However, irrespective of the outcome of the negotiations, who wins and who loses is already a foregone conclusion. China has been forced to carry out structural reform to its economy, while foreign companies are one after the other pulling out of the country, and this continues to have a negative effect on its economy. The US’ counter-offensive against China’s economic challenge is already beginning to bear fruit.

美中貿易談判進入最後階段，傳出中國在強制技術移轉、保護智慧財產及放寬市場准入等議題上已讓步，最快下個月可望達成協議。然而，不論美中最終談判結果如何，這場貿易戰的勝負早已分曉，中國不僅被迫在經濟上進行結構性改革，外企更因貿易戰而陸續撤離中國，對中國經濟的負面影響持續發酵，美國對抗中國經濟競爭已取得初步成果。

Washington began placing import tariffs on Chinese goods on July 6, 2018, which means the US-China trade war has now been “hot” for nine months. Since then, tit-for-tat tariffs have produced economic losses on both sides. However, in contrast to the return of manufacturing to US shores, the “factory of the world” is facing a supply chain exodus and seems unable to stem the tide. This includes Taiwanese companies which, together with other foreign corporations, are one after another heading for the door, either choosing to relocate manufacturing back home or to alternative manufacturing hubs, such as in Southeast Asian countries.

自二○一八年七月六日美國開始對中國產品加徵關稅以來，美中貿易戰正式開打已超過九個月；儘管美中互徵關稅造成雙方經濟損失，但相較於美國出現「製造業回流」現象，中國這個「世界工廠」卻面臨「供應鏈撤離」問題，目前仍未見止血跡象；包括台商等外企紛紛加入這波「脫中」行列，將部分生產線移回母國、東南亞等地生產。

According to data from the Ministry of Finance, during the first three months of this year, 30 manufacturers have already received approval from the government’s Welcome Overseas Taiwanese Companies to Invest in Taiwan Action Plan and pledged to invest a total of NT$120 billion, which is forecast to create more than 10,000 new job opportunities here. At present, a further 50 companies have also expressed an interest in returning to and investing in Taiwan. A comparable atypical wave of re-shoring to Taiwan hasn’t been seen for two decades.

根據經濟部統計，自今年初實施「歡迎台商回台投資行動方案」，短短三個多月已有三十家廠商通過審查，投資金額突破一千兩百億元，估計帶來逾一萬個就業機會，目前還有五十多家廠商有意回台投資，這波台商回流潮可說是二十年來罕見。

In fact, if one takes a trip to any industrial area, it will immediately become obvious that a large number of manufacturers have already switched production back to these shores, while others are busy expanding existing facilities or constructing new ones. This shows that the return of Taiwanese companies is not based upon some abstruse analysis of cold statistics: the phenomenon is taking shape before our very eyes.

事實上，只要到工業區走走就會發現，不少廠商早就轉單回台生產，有些廠商更忙著擴廠或建廠，台商回流並非「冷冰冰」的數字，而是正在發生的真實現象。

As the US-China trade standoff continues to rumble on, while Taiwan is not a main player, it is caught between the two major economies and, due to its over-reliance on China’s economy, contagion from the conflict has spread to Taiwan. Despite this, if the government is able to keep a steady hand on the tiller, capitalize on production orders and manufacturing operations returning to Taiwan, and guide the return of supply chains to these shores, Taiwan will be able to turn a crisis into an opportunity and become one of the trade war’s victor nations.

這場美中貿易戰打下來，台灣雖然不是主角，但夾在兩大經濟體之間，也因過度依賴中國而受到波及。不過，台廠及政府若能順勢而為，掌握轉單效應及台商回流趨勢，引導供應鏈移轉回台生產，將有機會把危機化為轉機，成為這場貿易戰的贏家之一。

Source article: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2019/04/23/2003713849/2