每日跟讀#626: Beware the Mideast’s Falling Pillars

For the last half-century the politics of the Middle East has been shaped by five key pillars, but all five are now crumbling. A new Middle East is aborning — but not necessarily the flourishing one that people imagined in the 1990s.

中東政治在過去半世紀裡一直由五大支柱所形塑支撐，而如今這五大支柱都在倒塌。一個新的中東正在形成，但未必會如1990年代人們想像的那樣繁榮。

This one is being shaped more by Twitter memes than by U.S. diplomats, more by unemployment than by terrorism, more by upheavals on the streets than by leaders in palaces, more by women than by men. Can’t say where it will all settle out, but for now, beware falling pillars.

說起形塑這個新中東的諸般力量，推特模因大過美國外交官，

失業問題大過恐怖主義，街頭動亂大過廟堂之上的領導者，女性大過男性。無法預知大勢最終如何底定，但現在，要小心正在傾倒的柱子。

How so? For starters, there was always a deep U.S. involvement in shaping the future of this region. But just look around today: The U.S. doesn’t even have ambassadors in Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan or Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. ambassador to Israel, a former Trump bankruptcy lawyer, is so enthralled with the right-wing Jewish settler movement that he is more a propagandist than a diplomat. Bye-bye American pie.

怎會如此？首先，美國過去一直積極介入該地區前途的形塑，然而看看當前的情況，美國甚至沒有在埃及、土耳其、伊拉克、阿拉伯聯合大公國、約旦及沙烏地阿拉伯派駐大使，而曾任川普破產問題律師的美國駐以色列大使，則醉心於右翼猶太屯墾運動，以致與其說他是位外交官員，不如說他是個宣傳人員。掰掰美國派。

Second, there has always been some kind of Israeli-Palestinian peace process pushing for the best two-state solution. Again, bye-bye. Today, in truth, the U.S. and Israel seem to be engaged in a search for the best one-state solution, meaning permanent Israeli security control over the West Bank and East Jerusalem, along with some form of deep Palestinian autonomy.

其次，以巴之間始終存在著某種推向最佳兩國方案的和平進程，而這也掰掰了。事實上，現在美國跟以色列似乎正致力尋求最佳的一國方案，這意味以色列將對約旦河西岸跟東耶路撒冷進行永久性安全管控，佐以某種形式的巴勒斯坦高度自治。

Third, Arab governments could always guarantee jobs for their populations in their bureaucracies or security services — jobs where you could come late, leave early and work another job on the side. Also, bye-bye. With falling oil prices and rising populations, virtually every Arab state today is trying to figure out how to shed government workers and outsource services.

第三，阿拉伯各國政府一向能保證他們的人民可在行政體系與安全機構裡找到工作，做這些工作可以遲到、早退，還能在外兼差，但這也掰掰了。隨著油價下跌、人口上升，今天幾乎每個阿拉伯國家都在設法裁減政府人員，並把一些服務外包出去。

The fourth crumbling pillar: The days when information flowed only from the top down, and Arab governments could control the voices in their countries, are long gone. With Twitter, Facebook and WhatsApp widely diffused in the Arab world, information now moves horizontally and people — using their real names — now tweet the most insulting things at their leaders.

第四根正在傾倒的支柱是，資訊只從上向下流動，阿拉伯各國政府能控制國內聲音的時代早已遠去。隨著推特、臉書跟WhatsApp在阿拉伯世界廣泛傳播，資訊如今水平移動，使用他們真實姓名的人們如今在推特上發布對他們領導人最具侮辱性的言詞。

Finally, men could dominate women through formal and informal religious, cultural and legal norms. But the recent high-profile cases of young women fleeing male control in Saudi Arabia and the UAE spoke for many Arab women who are no longer so willing to submit to male guardianship. This is especially true because women in many countries, Jordan, for instance, are now out-graduating men in both high school and universities.

最後則是，男性過去可透過正式與非正式的宗教、文化和法律規範宰制女性，但最近沙烏地阿拉伯與阿聯年輕女性逃離男性控制的高調案例顯示，許多阿拉伯婦女不再願意接受男性監護。這點尤其真確，因為在許多國家高中和大學畢業女性數量，都多過男性，約旦即為一例。

Welcome to the new Middle East! ！

歡迎來到新中東！

Source article: https://paper.udn.com/udnpaper/POH0067/338907/web/