每日跟讀#641: Globalization Finds Safe Place as U.S. Wages a Trade War

If globalization were ever going to unravel, the beginning would probably feel something like this.

如果全球化真的會崩解，它的開頭感覺上應該會是如此這般。

President Donald Trump, the leader of the country that built the world trading system, continues to disrupt international commerce as a weapon wielded in pursuit of national aims.

唐納．川普總統，世界貿易體制建立國的領導人，持續擾亂國際商業，以此作為武器用來追求國家目標。

He has unleashed trade hostilities with China, placed tariffs on steel made by allies like Europe and Japan, and restricted India’s access to the American market. He vowed to hit Mexico with tariffs mere months after he agreed to a new version of a deal liberalizing trade across North America.

他向中國發動貿易戰，對歐洲和日本等盟國製造的鋼鐵課徵關稅，且限制印度進入美國市場的機會。就在他同意新版北美自由貿易協定的數個月後，就誓言以關稅打擊墨西哥。

But globalization has become such an elemental feature of life that it is probably irreversible. The process of making modern goods, from airplanes to medical devices, has become so mind-bendingly complex, involving components drawn from multiple continents, that a few unexpected tariffs will not prompt companies to swiftly close factories in China and Mexico and replace them with plants in Ohio and Indiana.

然而全球化已成為極為基本的生活要素，應該已無法逆轉。從飛機到醫療器材，現代貨品製造過程的組成複合度已變得極高，包括取得來自多個洲陸的組件，因此，一些意料之外的關稅不會促使企業立刻關閉在中國大陸和墨西哥的工廠，而用俄亥俄州和印第安納州的工廠來取代。

What does appear to be ending is the post-World War II era in which the United States championed global trade as immunization against future conflict, selling the idea that the free exchange of goods was a pathway toward a more stable world order.

而看起來真正要結束的，是二戰後時代。在這個時代裡，美國力倡以全球貿易防杜未來的衝突，並推銷貨物自由交流可建立更穩定世界秩序的想法。

U.S. administrations forged rules governing disputes, enabling countries to trade with diminished fear of capricious political intervention. In ceding this role, Trump has weakened the rules-based trading system while removing a counterweight to China, whose transactional approach to trade places scant value on transparency and human rights.

美國歷任政府建立了管理爭議的規則，讓各國從事貿易時對反覆無常的政治干預不再那麼恐懼。川普讓出這個角色，削弱了以規則為基礎的貿易體制，同時喪失了一個制衡中國的力量，而中國從事貿易時採取的交易手段，極不重視透明與人權。

“One thing is really clear: There has got to be a reset in the world trading system,” said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. “It’s all breaking at the seams at this point.”

「有一點顯而易見：世界貿易體制必須重新設定。」倫敦經濟學院經濟學家史瓦提．丁格拉說。「此刻所有的接縫皆已裂開。」

The trade war unleashed by Trump has injected higher costs and confusion into the global economy, forcing businesses to anticipate the next venue for hostilities. U.S. retailers and manufacturers voiced that complaint in testimony to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, ahead of Trump’s plans to put tariffs on a further $300 billion worth of Chinese imports.

由川普發動的貿易戰已使全球經濟成本更高也更加混亂，迫使企業預測下一波貿易戰戰場何在。美國零售商和製造商在美國貿易代表署作證時傾吐了上述苦衷，時間就在川普計畫進一步對價值3000億美元的中國進口商品課徵關稅之前。

“This is now the post-American world economy, one in which globalization is much more spotty,” said Adam S. Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “The world is a riskier place, where access to markets is a lot less sure.”

「這就是現今的後美國世界經濟，全球化問題遠比過去要多。」華府的彼得森國際經濟研究所所長亞當．波森說。「世界是個風險更高的地方，能否進入市場也難說得多。」

In the Trump framing, the United States is best served by the unsentimental exploitation of its position as the world’s largest economy. It must brandish threats of limiting access to its market to force other countries to capitulate to its demands.

依照川普的理論，美國毫不留情地充分利用它世界最大經濟體的地位，最合乎美國的利益。美國必須大舉祭出限制外國貨品進入其市場的威嚇，以迫使其他國家屈從於美國的要求。

Source article: https://paper.udn.com/udnpaper/POH0067/341957/web/