每日英語跟讀 Ep.871: Europe and COVID-19: Time for true solidarity 破天荒二十五兆救市 歐盟能否同舟共濟？

In 1790, following the American war of independence, Alexander Hamilton proposed that federal government should take on the huge debts incurred during the struggle by individual states. It had long been Hamilton’s view that this move would be a key moment in the forging of a true United States of America. “A national debt,” he had written, “if it is not excessive, will be to us a national blessing. It will be a powerful cement of our union.”

美國獨立戰爭結束後，亞歷山大‧漢彌爾頓〔美國憲法起草人之一、第一任財政部長、美國金融體系奠基者〕在一七○九年提出，聯邦政府應承擔各州在互相爭戰期間所欠下的巨額債務。漢彌爾頓長久以來認為，此舉會是打造真正的美利堅合眾國之關鍵時刻。他寫道：「國家的債務——只要不是過於龐大——對我們來說將是國家之福。這會是把我們團結起來的強大力量」。

Until now, this kind of thinking has never gained a foothold in the European Union. Despite periodic calls for deeper fiscal union, richer EU states have balked at the notion of pooling debt with weaker neighbors. After the crash of 2008, when Greece hovered on the edge of bankruptcy and a sovereign debt crisis threatened to engulf Italy, the EU went no further than the provision of emergency loans and cheap credit. The bailout money came with painful strings attached, as countries were obliged to launch deeply resented austerity programs in order to manage their growing debt mountain. The alternative — writing off debts in Hamiltonian fashion — was dismissed out of hand by Germany’s finance minister at the time, Wolfgang Schauble.

這種思維之前在歐盟從未有立足之地。雖然每隔一段時間就有聲音呼籲歐盟建立更深層次的財政聯盟，但歐盟中較富裕的國家卻不甘願與較弱的歐盟成員國共同分擔債務。二??八年金融危機發生後，希臘在破產邊緣徘徊，義大利深陷主權債務危機，但歐盟除了提供緊急貸款與低息信貸之外，並沒有其他作為。紓困金有令人痛苦的附加條件，讓接受紓困的國家為處理不斷增加的龐大債務，不得不實施撙節政策，而招致了深深的民怨。當時還有另一種解決方案，也就是漢彌爾頓式地把債務勾銷，但這卻立刻被時任德國財政部長的沃夫岡‧蕭伯樂擋下了。

That was then. On May 18, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron presented plans for a 500 billion-euro (approximately US$556 billion) EU recovery fund, which would distribute non-refundable grants (rather than loans) to the countries that have suffered most during the coronavirus pandemic. Crucially, the money would be borrowed by the European Commission (EC) on behalf of all member states, and sit within the EU budget to be agreed for 2021-27.

此一時彼一時。五月十八日，德國總理安格拉‧梅克爾與法總統艾曼紐‧馬克宏提出了一項五千億歐元的歐盟復甦基金計畫，將提供贈款（而非貸款）給在冠狀病毒疫情中受創最劇之國家，且日後不須歸還。關鍵的是，這筆錢將由歐盟執委會代表所有成員國借入，編列在歐盟二○二一至二七年之預算中。

This paved the way for EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who on May 27 unveiled a 750 billion-euro fund, dubbed Next Generation EU, which will be mostly made up of grants and tied to the common budget of the EU’s 27 member nations.

這為歐盟執委會主席烏蘇拉‧馮德萊恩鋪平了道路，五月二十七日，她便推出了七千五百億歐元（約二十五兆台幣）、名為「下一代歐盟」的基金計畫，主要為贈款，將由歐盟二十七個成員國共同編列預算。

This could be a watershed moment. Since the adoption of the euro, there has been fierce argument over whether a common currency should entail at least some degree of common debt. The countries of the prosperous north, led by Germany, have resisted such talk. Governments have been wary of seeing their borrowing costs rise and conscious that such a move would be domestically unpopular. But COVID-19 is challenging old taboos.

這或許會是歷史性的分水嶺。自從採用歐元以來，對於使用共同貨幣的同時，是否也需承擔至少一定程度的共同債務，一直有激烈的爭論。以德國為首之較富裕的北方國家拒絕了這種論調。政府一直深怕借貸所要付出的利息成本上升，也曉得這會讓他們在國內的支持度下降。但是，武漢肺炎正在挑戰舊的禁忌。

Deprived of tourism revenue and facing the sharpest economic downturn in modern times, southern Europe fears a regional meltdown. Loan packages already agreed via the European Stability Mechanism, while welcome, will contribute to unprecedented levels of sovereign debt. In these dire circumstances, both Macron and Merkel have recognized that unless the burden of reconstruction is seen to be genuinely shared, there will be existential implications for the future of the EU.

南歐國家因疫情而失去了旅遊業收入，並面臨現代最嚴重的經濟衰退，因此南歐地區恐怕會崩潰。已透過歐洲穩定機制商定的貸款計畫雖受到歡迎，但這將會讓主權債務高到前所未見的地步。在此嚴峻形勢下，馬克宏與梅克爾都認識到，除非重建的重擔真正被分攤，否則歐盟未來的存續將受到影響。

On May 18, Merkel said the devastation wrought by the pandemic was of a magnitude such that it could “endanger the European Union’s cohesion.” Macron has suggested the “European idea” itself will be in danger, unless there is a step-change in solidarity between the stronger and weaker eurozone states. They are both right.

梅克爾五月十八日表示，這場疫情所造成的破壞如此之大，而到了可能「危及歐盟凝聚力」的地步。馬克宏則暗示，除非歐元區實力較強國家與較弱國家之間的關係有所變革而團結起來，否則「歐洲」這個概念本身將岌岌可危。他們都說得很對。

The negotiations that begin on May 27 will not be easy. On May 23, the first signs of organized opposition to the Franco-German proposals emerged, led by the so-called “frugal four” of the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Austria. Eastern European countries, which have had far lower infection and death rates during the pandemic, have also balked at the idea of a jointly financed recovery fund. It is vital that the substance of the Merkel-Macron plan survives intact. Hamilton was right in thinking that debt assumption by Washington would consolidate the status of the emerging United States. The EU needs to act in the same spirit in these similarly dramatic times.

五月二十七日起開始進行的談判不會是件容易的事。對法德提案的有組織的反對，在五月二十三日便已初見，這是由荷蘭、丹麥、瑞典和奧地利這所謂「節儉四國」所提出。在武漢肺炎疫情中感染率及死亡率低得多的東歐國家，也不情願共同資助復甦基金。讓梅克爾—馬克宏之倡議保留其實質，是至關重要的。漢彌爾頓認為讓華府承擔債務將鞏固當時正在興起的美國，他是對的。在這些同樣充滿戲劇轉折的時代，歐盟也需要秉持這樣的精神來行動。

Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2020/06/02/2003737424